Corridor Thesis
Medley
Medley is the highest spread corridor but the least proven from a power-disclosure standpoint. It deserves institutional attention because the land basis can still clear below Airport West while industrial precedent remains credible, but the public diligence trail is thinner and must be disclosed that way.
The Simi Capital takeout reset the upper end of Medley land pricing at $67.80/SF, while Beacon Lakes-adjacent land still changes hands materially below that level. That creates a real, but execution-dependent, value gap.
- Entry basis range
- 5.51-43.50
- $/SF land before soft costs.
- Supported exit
- $67.80 / SF
- Public comp-supported takeout only.
- Basis-to-exit spread
- 24.30 to 62.29 / SF
- Before financing, taxes and promote.
- Public pipeline
- 4
- 0 under LOI across 43.6 acres.
Deal Economics
Land-trade gross margin
60.5%
Assumes midpoint basis plus $2.25 / SF of soft cost.
Land-trade unlevered IRR
59.2%
24-month hold.
All-in development cost
$12.37M / MW
$1,547 / GSF at 12 MW.
Stabilized yield on cost
7.9%
Using $195.00 / kW / month and 85.0% occupancy.
Development unlevered IRR
7.6%
6.25% exit cap on a four-year hold.
Corridor power screen
12-18 MW
No public Medley corridor-wide capacity disclosure could be verified. Capacity shown here is a screen assumption only and needs parcel-level FPL or municipal utility confirmation.
Representative Parcel Screens
Public-facing pipeline table
| Parcel | Folio | Acreage | Current zoning | Target zoning | Ask | Land basis | Entitlement | Diligence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NW 25th St Industrial - 6.8 Acres Immediate operator-fit story in Medley industrial core. Strong substation adjacency and mid-scale acreage. | 22-3022-***-1200 | 6.80 | IU-1 | IU-1 | $12.5M | $42.20 / SF | 0-6 mo. | 8.0 / 10 | Under Screen |
NW South River Dr IOS Land A rare 25-acre Medley land screen with real listing exposure. More yard and staging oriented than finished industrial, but that is exactly why it belongs in the public funnel. | 30-3029-***-0140 | 25.00 | Industrial Outdoor Storage | Industrial / powered yard | $6M | $5.51 / SF | 9-16 mo. | 7.3 / 10 | Under Screen |
Gratigny Industrial Park - 3.8 Acres Already industrial, though the operator-fit story is narrower than true IU-1 options. | 22-3022-***-8200 | 3.80 | IU-2 | IU-1 | $7.2M | $43.50 / SF | 9-16 mo. | 7.0 / 10 | Under Screen |
Beacon Lakes Adjacent - 8 Acres Higher-upside assembly thesis near Beacon Station precedent, but diligence burden is materially heavier. | 30-3022-***-2100 | 8.00 | GU | IU-1 | TBD | TBD | 12-18 mo. | 6.3 / 10 | Under Screen |
Return Sensitivity
Development IRR by basis and exit cap
| Basis case | 6.00% exit cap | 6.25% exit cap | 6.75% exit cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low | 9.4% | 8.4% | 6.5% |
| Base | 8.6% | 7.6% | 5.6% |
| High | 7.8% | 6.8% | 4.9% |
Low / Base / High reflect the low end, midpoint and high end of corridor land plus utility-cost screens. Construction cost is held at the JLL 2025 global average of $10.7M/MW.
Utility Diligence
Power and energization posture
Substation proximity
Parcel-specific; no public corridor benchmark located
Key Bay Capital • 2026-03-31
Public capacity disclosure
None verified
Key Bay Capital • 2026-03-31
Interconnection cost
$4.0M-$7.0M screen
Key Bay Capital • 2026-03-31
Timeline to energization
24-36 months unless a will-serve letter is already in hand
CBRE Research • 2026-02-26
Environmental & Entitlement Risk
Risk matrix
Entitlement
ModerateValue comes from GU or BU-3 to IU-1 conversions, which makes hearing risk part of the business plan.
Mitigation: Only pursue conversions when entry basis plus full soft-cost load still clears a double-digit IRR on a 24-month hold.
Utility
ModerateCorridor-level power headroom is not publicly published.
Mitigation: Sequence utility letters before survey / ESA / traffic spend and kill sites that do not show credible 12+ MW potential.
Flood / climate
ModerateSome Beacon Lakes adjacency screens drift into flood-sensitive pockets.
Mitigation: Use flood-zone and drainage design as first-pass filters, not late-stage clean-up work.
Community / politics
LowHeavy industrial precedent is better here than in Doral or urban infill pockets.
Mitigation: Anchor all narratives around industrial tax base, low employment count and non-retail traffic patterns.
Source Stack
Every number should tell you where it came from
Simi Capital Pays $31M for 10.5-Acre Medley Development Site
Traded • 2025-05-27
Broker-market comp used for Medley exit support. Derived land basis equals $67.80/SF on 10.5 acres.
Open sourceButters and First Industrial Acquire 21.35-Acre Site in Miami for $33.5M
Traded • 2024-12-30
Beacon Lakes-adjacent industrial development site comp. Read-through basis of roughly $36.01/SF on land area.
Open sourceNorth America Data Center Trends H2 2025
CBRE Research • 2026-02-26
Primary-market average asking rate increased to $195.94/kW/month. Sites with power access inside 18-36 months are highly sought after. Powered sites in Northern Virginia and the Northeast exceeded $8 million per acre.
Open sourceData center availability crisis deepens as vacancy hits historic low
JLL • 2025-08-22
JLL says North America inventory reached 15.5 GW in H1 2025 and average asset-level cap rates held around 6%.
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