KB

KEY BAY CAPITAL

Corridor Thesis

Medley

Medley is the highest spread corridor but the least proven from a power-disclosure standpoint. It deserves institutional attention because the land basis can still clear below Airport West while industrial precedent remains credible, but the public diligence trail is thinner and must be disclosed that way.

The Simi Capital takeout reset the upper end of Medley land pricing at $67.80/SF, while Beacon Lakes-adjacent land still changes hands materially below that level. That creates a real, but execution-dependent, value gap.

Entry basis range
5.51-43.50
$/SF land before soft costs.
Supported exit
$67.80 / SF
Public comp-supported takeout only.
Basis-to-exit spread
24.30 to 62.29 / SF
Before financing, taxes and promote.
Public pipeline
4
0 under LOI across 43.6 acres.

Deal Economics

Land-trade gross margin

60.5%

Assumes midpoint basis plus $2.25 / SF of soft cost.

Land-trade unlevered IRR

59.2%

24-month hold.

All-in development cost

$12.37M / MW

$1,547 / GSF at 12 MW.

Stabilized yield on cost

7.9%

Using $195.00 / kW / month and 85.0% occupancy.

Development unlevered IRR

7.6%

6.25% exit cap on a four-year hold.

Corridor power screen

12-18 MW

2026-03-31Assumption

No public Medley corridor-wide capacity disclosure could be verified. Capacity shown here is a screen assumption only and needs parcel-level FPL or municipal utility confirmation.

Representative Parcel Screens

Public-facing pipeline table

ParcelFolioAcreageCurrent zoningTarget zoningAskLand basisEntitlementDiligenceStatus
NW 25th St Industrial - 6.8 Acres
Immediate operator-fit story in Medley industrial core. Strong substation adjacency and mid-scale acreage.
22-3022-***-12006.80IU-1IU-1$12.5M$42.20 / SF0-6 mo.8.0 / 10Under Screen
NW South River Dr IOS Land
A rare 25-acre Medley land screen with real listing exposure. More yard and staging oriented than finished industrial, but that is exactly why it belongs in the public funnel.
30-3029-***-014025.00Industrial Outdoor StorageIndustrial / powered yard$6M$5.51 / SF9-16 mo.7.3 / 10Under Screen
Gratigny Industrial Park - 3.8 Acres
Already industrial, though the operator-fit story is narrower than true IU-1 options.
22-3022-***-82003.80IU-2IU-1$7.2M$43.50 / SF9-16 mo.7.0 / 10Under Screen
Beacon Lakes Adjacent - 8 Acres
Higher-upside assembly thesis near Beacon Station precedent, but diligence burden is materially heavier.
30-3022-***-21008.00GUIU-1TBDTBD12-18 mo.6.3 / 10Under Screen

Return Sensitivity

Development IRR by basis and exit cap

Basis case6.00% exit cap6.25% exit cap6.75% exit cap
Low9.4%8.4%6.5%
Base8.6%7.6%5.6%
High7.8%6.8%4.9%

Low / Base / High reflect the low end, midpoint and high end of corridor land plus utility-cost screens. Construction cost is held at the JLL 2025 global average of $10.7M/MW.

Utility Diligence

Power and energization posture

Substation proximity

Parcel-specific; no public corridor benchmark located

Assumption

Key Bay Capital2026-03-31

Public capacity disclosure

None verified

Assumption

Key Bay Capital2026-03-31

Interconnection cost

$4.0M-$7.0M screen

Assumption

Key Bay Capital2026-03-31

Timeline to energization

24-36 months unless a will-serve letter is already in hand

Verified

CBRE Research2026-02-26

Environmental & Entitlement Risk

Risk matrix

Entitlement

Moderate

Value comes from GU or BU-3 to IU-1 conversions, which makes hearing risk part of the business plan.

Mitigation: Only pursue conversions when entry basis plus full soft-cost load still clears a double-digit IRR on a 24-month hold.

Utility

Moderate

Corridor-level power headroom is not publicly published.

Mitigation: Sequence utility letters before survey / ESA / traffic spend and kill sites that do not show credible 12+ MW potential.

Flood / climate

Moderate

Some Beacon Lakes adjacency screens drift into flood-sensitive pockets.

Mitigation: Use flood-zone and drainage design as first-pass filters, not late-stage clean-up work.

Community / politics

Low

Heavy industrial precedent is better here than in Doral or urban infill pockets.

Mitigation: Anchor all narratives around industrial tax base, low employment count and non-retail traffic patterns.

Source Stack

Every number should tell you where it came from

Simi Capital Pays $31M for 10.5-Acre Medley Development Site

Traded2025-05-27

Broker

Broker-market comp used for Medley exit support. Derived land basis equals $67.80/SF on 10.5 acres.

Open source

Butters and First Industrial Acquire 21.35-Acre Site in Miami for $33.5M

Traded2024-12-30

Broker

Beacon Lakes-adjacent industrial development site comp. Read-through basis of roughly $36.01/SF on land area.

Open source

North America Data Center Trends H2 2025

CBRE Research2026-02-26

Verified

Primary-market average asking rate increased to $195.94/kW/month. Sites with power access inside 18-36 months are highly sought after. Powered sites in Northern Virginia and the Northeast exceeded $8 million per acre.

Open source

Data center availability crisis deepens as vacancy hits historic low

JLL2025-08-22

Verified

JLL says North America inventory reached 15.5 GW in H1 2025 and average asset-level cap rates held around 6%.

Open source

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