Corridor Thesis

Opa-Locka

Opa-Locka is a basis trade, not the core institutional bet. It belongs in the room because the entry basis is meaningfully cheaper than Airport West or Medley, but the corridor should be presented as optionality with material environmental, political and utility execution risk.

Performance Food Group still paid $55.46/SF for a 3.53-acre industrial site in March 2025. That gives the corridor a real top-end comp, but not enough to justify pretending Opa-Locka is de-risked.

Entry basis range: 9.18-38.26; $/SF land before soft costs.
Supported exit: $55.46 / SF; Public comp-supported takeout only.
Basis-to-exit spread: 17.20 to 46.28 / SF; Before financing, taxes and promote.
Public pipeline: 2; 0 under LOI across 12.3 acres.

Deal Economics

Land-trade gross margin

49.6%

Assumes midpoint basis plus $4.25 / SF of soft cost.

Land-trade unlevered IRR

31.5%

30-month hold.

All-in development cost

$12.56M / MW

$1,288 / GSF at 8 MW.

Stabilized yield on cost

6.8%

Using $185.00 / kW / month and 82.0% occupancy.

Development unlevered IRR

1.9%

6.75% exit cap on a four-year hold.

Corridor power screen

8-12 MW

2026-03-31≈Assumption

No public corridor-level power disclosure was verified. Everything here should be treated as a conditional screen pending utility and environmental letters.

Representative Parcel Screens

Public-facing pipeline table

Parcel	Folio	Acreage	Current zoning	Target zoning	Ask	Land basis	Entitlement	Diligence	Status
15015 NW 22nd Ave Commercial Land Small but real public listing with an actual street-facing land image. Works as an optionality screen, not a flagship campus parcel.	30-3022-***-0890	0.27	6600 Commercial	Commercial / mixed-use	$450K	$38.26 / SF	9-16 mo.	6.9 / 10	Under Screen
Opa-Locka Airport Periphery - 12 Acres Cheap basis with material environmental risk. Keep it in the stack only with a disciplined diligence gate.	08-2118-***-0100	12.00	GU	IU-1	$4.8M	$9.18 / SF	12-18 mo.	5.0 / 10	Under Screen

Return Sensitivity

Development IRR by basis and exit cap

Basis case	6.50% exit cap	6.75% exit cap	7.25% exit cap
Low	3.6%	2.7%	1.0%
Base	2.8%	1.9%	0.2%
High	2.0%	1.1%	-0.6%

Low / Base / High reflect the low end, midpoint and high end of corridor land plus utility-cost screens. Construction cost is held at the JLL 2025 global average of $10.7M/MW.

Utility Diligence

Power and energization posture

Substation proximity

Case-by-case; no public benchmark located

≈Assumption

Key Bay Capital • 2026-03-31

Public capacity disclosure

None verified

≈Assumption

Key Bay Capital • 2026-03-31

Interconnection cost

$6.0M-$10.0M screen

≈Assumption

Key Bay Capital • 2026-03-31

Timeline to energization

30-42 months base case

≈Assumption

Key Bay Capital • 2026-03-31

Environmental & Entitlement Risk

Risk matrix

Entitlement

High

Opa-Locka stories are only attractive because they assume more zoning and political work.

Mitigation: Keep it to a shadow pipeline until Phase I / Phase II and early municipal reads support the thesis.

Utility

High

No published corridor-level capacity support could be located.

Mitigation: Require written utility response before any hard-money pursuit or LOI.

Environmental

High

Airport-adjacent industrial history raises the odds of contamination, fill and drainage complications.

Mitigation: Phase I first, then kill or reprice aggressively if a Phase II is triggered.

Community / politics

Moderate

Any heavy-power project near airport and residential edges can draw public process friction.

Mitigation: Do not sell this as a near-term core deployment market; underwrite longer holds and heavier contingency.

Source Stack

Every number should tell you where it came from

Performance Food Group Buys 3.53-Acre Opa-Locka Site for $8.53M

Traded • 2025-03-07

◉Broker

Opa-Locka industrial land comp. Derived basis equals $55.46/SF on 3.53 acres.

Open source

North America Data Center Trends H2 2025

CBRE Research • 2026-02-26

✓Verified

Primary-market average asking rate increased to $195.94/kW/month. Sites with power access inside 18-36 months are highly sought after. Powered sites in Northern Virginia and the Northeast exceeded $8 million per acre.

Open source

Data center availability crisis deepens as vacancy hits historic low

JLL • 2025-08-22

✓Verified

JLL says North America inventory reached 15.5 GW in H1 2025 and average asset-level cap rates held around 6%.

Open source

Corridor Capacity Screen Assumptions

Key Bay Capital • 2026-03-31

≈Assumption

Medley and Opa-Locka lack publicly disclosed corridor-level capacity letters. Capacity ranges shown are screening estimates only and should be replaced with utility will-serve letters at LOI.

Open source

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